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Altario Shialt-eck-Gorrin
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« Reply #15 on: 09 December 2008, 12:35:58 »

*raises eyebrow... nods contemplatingly..... grabs remusian abacus (a string with hrugchuk mice tails tied to it)*

uh huh... I can see that... *mubles as he starts ciphering*... inverse the interger....  cube root the tangent.... colate the denominator...

uhm... did you carry the 1??
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Bard Judith
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« Reply #16 on: 09 December 2008, 14:59:57 »

I think I'm in love!  A medievalist who can write articulately AND do math!

Now, mind you, we have a constant creative tension here between the fantasists and the realists, and the ideal entries are those which can balance the tightrope between 'yeah, right, I'm so sure THAT would work' and 'huh, my vote for boringest entry of year'.   I notice you are carefully allowing some wiggle room for fantasy, though you can still fudge those figures even more by assuming that magic in some ways fills the role of science.  That is, though technology is only medieval to renaissance-level (no refrigerators) we do have magical assistance in certain areas which will improve our standard of living (cooling spells, stasis and preservation magic, duplication and replication spells to bulk food out, magically enhanced crops, etc.)      In fact, if we go pester our mages to actually write up a few of those spells for the Compendium, instead of trying to blow each other up with the battle enchantments they seem to prefer, we'd probably be able to add another eight to ten percent onto your calculations quite comfortably.   (Then again, if we LET them blow each other up, there's just that many less people to worry about feeding....)

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Bard Judith
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« Reply #17 on: 09 December 2008, 15:08:42 »

OOooh, another thought.  We do have separate 'desmenes' for separate races, in some cases, but in other situations they are all mixed.  So you have actual 'layers' in some areas.

The dwarves, for example, live underground and grow much of their food in huge underground 'shroom' farms.  Their green veggies are tough things that grow semi-wild in hidden cultivated patches in mountainous areas where humans don't reside and live anyhow.

Hobbits and some Brownies and most gnomes are fairly interdependent with humans, living closely or even together, so they all have to be counted in population censuses.  Yet Brownies take up comparatively little space and if they were to be counted would have to be in some sort of ratio to humans (1:300?  :) )

However, the elves are pretty self-sufficient within their elven forests.  Have to check with Wren about trading routes and what they do and don't grow/import/export.

You see just how complex this could get in pretty short order!
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« Reply #18 on: 09 December 2008, 16:00:57 »

or "Ever square danced with a gnome?"

Yes, races are all so different.  I agree on several of your points.

ELVES are self sufficient and largely trade for luxury goods, not basic stuffs.  They trade because it is beautiful and or amusing, not for need (with some exceptions as always of course...).  However, elves are also by necessity not densely populated either.  One can probably use the "wilderness" rule to calculate population, or 1 elf per 10 hectares max (so 10 elves per square stral), which would theoretically put limits in most of the forests at a few thousands of elves, which is probably about right (or?)  And of course, why would elves grow to their limits?  They probably maintain a sensible half of limit or something.  So the Auturian Sty'cal is about 750 sqS, meaning it could theoretically maintain 7500 elves, but 3000 is more likely...

DWARVES is an interesting case.  I agree, they probably CAN be selfsufficient, but probably enjoy getting some sun into their food on occasion.  And anyway, a real dwarf mines and makes, not farms... or?  However, an interesting question - how many dwarves in the Mithral Mnts?  Given one large, one medium and one small community, what does that make... some number of thousands?  But estimates based on sqS probably don't make sense, since they have the option of going deeper...

BROWNIES are... well... small.  I don't know what to say about them.  Actually, all of the minor races are really minor enough that population is not such a concern I suspect.  Gnomes...  Probably a lot like humans in the cities and otherwise like hobbits in the country.  HOBBITS, live in shires that I suspect are pretty human like for calculations.

ORCS... I suspect calculate like nomadic humans x2 (as in they are likely to have 2x what the human ceiling on a region would be). And they are always at their ceiling (they breed quickly).  So, if

NOMADIC humans - meaning you will find villages and such, but most of the food derives from moving herds accross large plateaus and such.  THough unrealistically high, I would treat concentrations to be like semi-wilderness lands, so 1 person per 10 hectares = 10 per sqS (like elves).  I am thinking for example about those peoples whose names starts with K way up north.

Okay, so to summarize a proposal... (I will respond to this link below)
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« Reply #19 on: 09 December 2008, 17:58:14 »

Okay, a nice neet table of maximums (BTW please suggest changes!!)


RACE                  FARMLAND   GRAZINGLANDS       SEMIWILD      WILDS

Elves*                      -                      -                    1-5/sqS     (1/sqS)
Dwarves*                 -                      -                    2-10/sqS    (1/sqS)
Orcs*                       -                  33/sqS               20/sqS       10/sqS
Hobbits                  100/sqS               -                        -                -
Nomadic Humans        -                  33/sqS               10/sqS        2/sqS
Agri Humans           100/sqS           33/sqS               10/sqS            -

Gnomes, Brownies and other minor races live in communities decided by other factors - they seldom approach limits.  Ditto on trolls and ogres and the rest.

The above numbers are mostly how many COULD live in an area.  This number is VERY HIGH based on late medieval rennaissance numbers, which would have placed this 40% less or so.  For humans we assume  (this is the important number...) that 50** of these numbers suffice to get the maximum crop yield, but that the other 50%** are then concentrated into far off cities and the local towns.  So, if a large stretch of farmland, like the Twynor Holdings is 250 square strals of good farmland plus a little other land around the edges, we expect given that it is a well developed region to have a maximum population of around 12,500 dispersed across in assorted dorfs, hamlets, small villages and homesteads.  In addition, then food and goods are produced in quantity to support around 12,500 persons in such small towns as Twyner, Yantellan and Kinsley, accounting for perhaps 6000 (assuming each is around 2000 pop*** in the nonagricultural inner town), and the other half of production being exported for profit to the cities (say 6000 persons worth of foods and goods to Marcogg, but perhaps 500 persons worth of goods to Klinsor).

Other races in the towns should probably be counted as with the humans for simplicity's sake.  Since they all then live on what is primarily the human agricultural economy, it wouldn't make a big difference.  And since none of these races are likely to provide to the urban agricultural economy so far as essentials go...  I.e., dwarves may supply tools, weapons, metal goods, etc., and gnomes do glass and paper, and elves all sorts of fine things, and hobbits may provide fine ales, tabac and furniture, but basic commodities like meat, potatoes and grain come from human farmers largely. 

*Elves probably do not follow biological logic - they do not increase to max thresholds, but rather find comfortable community sizes at which they stabalize.  With only a few exceptions, I would imagine elvish communities seldom are larger than a few thousands, and I would guess fewer mostly.  I imagine they seldom trade for basic foodstuffs and are essentially selfsufficient, perhaps only trading for some luxury foods and goods...

*Similarly, dwarvish clans are probably limited to 10,000 before they split up and become two clans, the one going somewhere else to mine.  Just my guess...  I would guess they can be selfsufficient, but probably prefer to trade for sunnier foods...

*Orcs seem a little like nomadic humans, only they do not concentrate well (hence why orchish cities are so rare - without humans to limit the orc testiness, they kill each other).  However, they are probably very good at surving in semiwilderness and wilderness contexts, hence the high numbers there.  Just my guess...

**Using the 50% (1/2)   here is totally unrealistic so far as agriculture in medieval history is concerned.  Estimates I have read rather place it at 10% and 90% respectively. That is, 90% of the population are farmers making food for themselves and with a surplus of 10%. The best estimates I know of are here (http://www.history.ac.uk/eseminars/sem24.html) who suggest at the peak around 1300 (and remaining the same till 1500, whereafter it may have declined again before becoming industrial) it may have risen to 20% and 80%.  However, in some areas that had especially good farmland and which also had large cities, such as the Low Lands, FLanders, etc, it may even have reached 40% urbanized and 60% rural farmers, but that is dubious. 

Okay, but we live in a world where the technology, while pre-industrial, is still high (near rennaissance), but also we have elven lore and loads of magic...  So, as Master Bard Judith notes, we can probably slide the scale considerably towards the modern industrial.  Thus, let us try out 50% or 1/2 urbanized vs. rural (that is 1/2 of the populace are essentiall rural and supporting themselves and the 1/2 who are urban).  But why not stretch it even further?  My own thinking is that if it goes even further than that, it unbalances the world - we cease to be medieval fantasy and start to look like something out of the 19th century England, which is just so dreary...  I love the thought of huge preindustrial farmlands (not saying I want to be a peasant by the way, no matter how much magic we have...) and horses and carts.  I get squeemish thinking about concentrating all the population in cities like modern times... 

Anyhow, this is an important number it would be good to agree on... So what do you all think, 1/2?

***The towns of Twyner, Yantellan and Kinsley are marked the way several small villages are marked.  My own thinking is that there needs to be a kind of town that is in between the large cities (e.g., Marcogg) and the smallest villages (those little rural groupings of people under 1000 in number).  My suggestion is to interpret the map "villages" as actually small towns - so, for example, Kolbruk, which is mentioned as having between 200 and 400 pop, actually has between 2000 and 4000 (x10) or perhaps as representing 200 to 400 families with an average size of 8 (meaning 3 children, 2 parents, 2 grand parents, 1 uncle or whatever)... making the population actually between 1600 and 3200, which fits the economics of the area better.  This may seem extreme, but it kind of works if one remembers that each dwelling probably is home to 8 persons, 3 of them children.  This is my suggestion to help make the maps work...

This is my guess on it all...  Please, your thoughts!!


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Bard Judith
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« Reply #20 on: 09 December 2008, 18:33:44 »

 Bravo, well done, give the man a Pipeweed cigar!


Right, Ringan my dear: at this point you need to take a deep breath, sit back, and wait patiently for the various experts in their areas to get here.

The world of Caelereth/Santharia has been literally ten years in the making, evolving into a huge, multi-faceted, incredibly inter-connected and complex fantasy universe, constructed of people's dreams.   What you're proposing, while inherently logical, and appealing (at least to me and a few other med-geeks), could/would/might have a significant impact on the existing world and everyone needs to weight in with their views and opinions - well, at the very least have a chance to look at this!

(Not everyone checks in four times a day the way I do... :)  )   

 So, have a Doch Nut and Kao-kao cookie, sip some cha'ah, and go dig around in the Compendium for a while http://www.santharia.com  - your research will be duly rewarded.   There are marvelous beasts, fascinating plants, amazing stories, delicious receipts, all kinds of dreadful limericks and lyrical poems, original music pieces and swear words..... oh, you won't be bored while you're waiting....   and let this sit for a few days while people look it over, ok?

Regards from the bard,
Judith
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« Reply #21 on: 09 December 2008, 20:21:04 »

Hello Ringan!

It is good to have somebody who deals with this. I have studied and played with this FIEF as well, but didn't actual do much with it. I still don't know, how many Shendar exist - how many the desert will support. I think not many town entries do have actual numbers. I have set 130.000 for Varcopas as one of the major port towns, Strata* should have less, New Santhala more. Another great porttown is Milkengrad. Many other towns don't need to be really big though, Bardavos e.g.. The importance should not necessarily go with the number of inhabitants.

We can of course change numbers, but there have been such big cities in the past.

*Strata gets most of its food (grain) from Aeruillin.
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« Reply #22 on: 09 December 2008, 21:38:03 »

Nice Job, Ringan! I'd just like to comment on the Dwarves.

The Dwarves can be self sufficient, but do choose to trade with those they feel they can trust. So, they're fine with not have any sunny foods, though they still trade for them. Furthermore, in your table, don't you think you should add a "cave/tunnel/mine" section for Dwarves? I think they need such a rating, since there would obviously be a lot more Dwarves crammed in a mountain range than could be crammed onto the same space if it was flat. You also have to take into account that several Dwarf tribes have different modes of living, so that brings in other considerations.

The idea of a 10,000 max number for Dwarves in one mine sounds fine, but how much space would such a settlement take up? And how many would fit in a mountain range? I would think maybe three or four max, as there is only so much minable ore.

Anyway, again great work!  grin thumbup
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Artimidor Federkiel
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« Reply #23 on: 10 December 2008, 05:50:45 »

Ok, I'm finally back from updating, Ringan! wave

I see you've put a lot of work into these concepts and also have studied various things we have on the site, so you are pretty well informed. And you also got an idea that we haven't really accomplished to get anything actually defined in terms of exact population in Santharian. Many things in this regard were just "good guesses", and here and there we've got outdated information as well.

Anway, I have to admit that I personally am not exactly the bookkeeping type of guy who measures things long and wide and makes exact calculations, and too many numbers make me dizzy... lol As you see the "good guess" system therefore is mostly what we have so far. But I welcome all thoughts and ideas that try to make sense of it all and develop an underlying system that we can utilize to determine populations. What you say seems to make all good sense, at least it's hard to contradict it without doing in depth research. And personally I think we might try to compute some concrete numbers to get the proper feeling for what you sketched here in general.

Your initial question was: Is there a list of all the cities and towns with their populations somewhere? Well, we don't have one, but this is something we thought about already, yet haven't implemented it yet. We should perhaps now try to get to that. The idea was to start with the province of Manthria as we have a pretty elaborate map here, and to list the cities, towns, villages, hamlets etc. on one page with population numbers (and perhaps with race/tribe percentages) and short descriptions, duchy the settlements belong to etc. so that they can be easily referenced, compared and looked up. Maybe we should try just that right now and thus get a general feeling?

Important would also be to define how we call these settlement categories, so that we can work towards consistency in this respect as well. E.g. What's a metropolis? A city? What is a town, a village, a hamlet etc. The Manthrian overview could then categorize by town size. Based on your calculations maybe you could make a draft how you'd see Manthria's (human) population, how many people you'd calculate to live in the larger cities and the larger towns, so that we get the rough idea. I'd say let's discuss this as concrete as possible, perhaps add in unusual factors here and there that affect population size in the one and the other direction, but eventually get this rough overview down on paper. Personaly I don't mind if we have to cut settlement sizes to make things realistic, the more realistic the better. :)
« Last Edit: 10 December 2008, 05:52:48 by Artimidor Federkiel » Logged



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« Reply #24 on: 14 December 2008, 02:18:55 »

Hi Artimidor!

Okay, will try to make a go of this here...  Going to start in Manthria and work the dutchies one by one.  Actually, I am going to work the regions one by one, because in several cases, they are unnaturally seperated.  What I mean by this is, for example, that the Mithral Coast is spread controlled by two adjacent dutchies (Marcogg and Huicen - though I recognize the historical reasons for it)  However, for working out populations and economy (related of course!), it is better to look at viable regions than political regions (and anyway the friction between the two oftens tells a lot of history in its own right - or in other words, there are some good political reasons that the southern Mithral coast was never subsumed into the far more populous northern part... with whom most of their trade will be conducted (because with the exception of very valuable luxury goods, it does not make sense to try to move fish and foods across the mountains to Marcogg, but rather north to Marduran...)  Okay, so beginning... First some working assumptions (and these I will try to keep consistent everywhere, so if something should be tweeked, it is these numbers!):

Basic population density:

High yield agricultural land and land 
near rivers and accessable coast line:   supports  60 pop/ss. (sq.stral)
(note: near means within a stral)        requires   40 pop to work it

Average yield land including planes for grazing
and sheep rich hills, lightly wooded regions:    supports 30 pop/ss.
(also use as average across whole countries)   requires 20 pop/ss.

Low yield semi wilderness with gardens,
some grazing, hunting and foraging
as primary foods sources:                              supports 6 pop/ss.
(e.g. foothills, nomads in their element,          requires 4 pop/ss.
 elves and brownies in forests, etc.)

Very Low Yield wilderness, including jungle,
thick forests, very cold/hot places, etc.            supports 1 pop/ss.
Also, dwarves and goblins in Mountains,           (requires 1 pop/ss.)
And orcs in otherwise no yield lands
(see below -  they are hardy creatures).

No yield wilderness and lands, including desserts     (support 0.1/ss.)
for all but dessert nomads and mountains for all      (require 0.1/ss.)
except dwarves and goblins, deep and heavy
forests for all except brownies, elves, orcs; swamps
for all except mugs, etc. In short, unless a race or
tribe have special adaptations, no production happens.
If they do have special adaptations, treat as low yield,
and remember some kind of orc has adapted to every
possible climate and context.

Note - France in 1300 had averaged 65 pop/sq.m.  = 25 pop/ss.
while England in 1200 was closer to 30 pop/sq.m.   = 12 pop/ss.
but note these averages included wilderness and
no yield lands, like the high Alps and English swamps.

Note that I am working with simplified average that 2/3 (67%) of the population must work the land that is producing - this is *very low* by medieval standards, which more realistically ranged from 80% to 95%, with few exceptions (e.g., Flanders in early rennaissance) and these numbers were not improved upon until the industrial revolution...

URBAN concentration accounts for the difference (1/3), and I define urban as any concentration of people starting at  1000pop (irrespective of race).  See below for why this high number, but in short, wherever there is a market, crafts people,... a tavern  :D )

Note: I am going to assume the populations of "VILLAGES" already on the maps as counting the number of family heads, not actual people.  So, if a "small village" has 200 pop, this actually means 200 families of 5 - btw. this follows a tradition going back to the medieval notion of "Hundreds" (English shires were made of several "Hundreds" and each represented "100 men and their weapons" -  in other words, less the wives and kids, who make up... 80% of the population on average!)  Of course, in some places, they ONLY count the women and not the stay home dads  ;)

However, I am going to assume CITY populations are accurate... where a CITY is defined as over 1000pop (all races),  and moreover, I assume these numbers also count the resident farmers whose fields extend out a stral (or more in non high yield land, meaning grazing lands out to 2 or more stral or hunting lands upto 5 stral, say in the case of elves or orcs) from the city walls - or to put it another way, the immediate area around a city of 10,000 or less (about 9ss. or 9sq.km.) produces enough food for 900 pop (and also provides "jobs" for 600 pop as farmers!).  This number does not vary so much based on city size, since 10,000 pop fills one urban ss. (square stral), and even a mega city with 90,000 pop filling an area of 9 ss. would only have around 16ss surrounding it and so probably assorted local villages.  So simplifying a little, we can safely assume the following average for ALL CITIES and TOWNS:

           Around 660 of every town or city pop are employed
           as farmers and enough foods are produced to
          feed 1000 of the locals.

          This means TOWNS of 1000pop are self-sufficient and
          have around 30 shops, crafts people, as well as around
          38 lords, knights, guards, priests, etc.
          (remembering that 30 + 38 = 68 and 68 means 68
           families of 5 = 340, the difference of 1000 - 660 :-) )
          Really, towns of 1000 are glorified villages.

          TOWNS and CITIES greater than 1000 require imports,
          but everyone over 1000 is employed in a more urban way.

          Smaller VILLAGES export basic goods to towns and cities
          and trade for more refined goods produced there (like
          iron tools and wagons and clothing)           

Note that for Dwarves and Elves, I would use the Very Low Yield lower numbers (1pop./ss. in all terrain) irrespective of terrain. They COULD have much higher numbers (using 6pop/ss. in foothills or forests) as they are, if anything, way more efficient in every respect, except for one way: having children  :P     If they import, it is only for luxury goods and foods, not from necessity for basic provisions.
Note that Goblins and Dwarves can achieve 1pop/ss in mountains, I would not think higher - even though they can layer caves on top of caves.  I cannot imagine acres and acres of fields under mountains...  However, also remember that 1pop/ss is 10x more than any other race in the mountains, and it means the Mithral mountains, by example, with 20,000ss can support upwards 20,000 Dwarves as a maximum, and this is probably much higher than it actually is.
Hobbits to a lesser extent and Orcs more so, I would count with human numbers, because they tend to breed to max capacity.  However, orcs (and goblins) do not farm much and do not do well when naturally concentrated, so they should treat high and middle yield land types as semiwilderness,  but their strength lies in treating No Yield wilderness as Very Low Yield; they do not cultivate tomatoes but they can find a few fish in the dessert, and moles in the mountains, and they hunt rather well... and are willing to eat anything of course.
Brownies... probably use the same 6 brownies/ss. in appropriate land, even if it is Very Low Yield for humans (e.g., deep forests, jungles).

*******************************************
So, I will split messages now - these are working assumptions (please suggest changes!  And I will elsewhere provide some links for research)

I will turn to the Mithral Marches and Coast next based on these assumptions.
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« Reply #25 on: 14 December 2008, 04:57:57 »

Hate to add more factors of complexity, but just a side note which you can reference or ignore for simplicity's sake:

Both dwarves (Thergerim) and elves are also more 'efficient' as working populations as they have much longer lifespans, thus increasing the number of active hands in a community by a huge percentage. 

Young dwarves, for example, begin apprenticeships at around eighty to ninety years of age, true, but then can be contributing workers for nearly the next two centuries!  (Dwarves live for about two and a half human centuries, on the average.  They undergo a short time of decrepitude, known as 'becoming stone', where their bodies begin to stiffen, before death and their 'return to Trum-Baroll'.)   Also, they aren't exactly babes in arms for those first eighty years, either - they can, and are expected to, be a labour force in simple tasks around the cavern, from doing basic food gathering and preparation, to helping care for the actual infants, lugging water, and so on. 

 See the tale of the Midnight Morjual for a) a good picture of a dwarven workday and b) entertainment.     http://www.santharia.com/library/thergerim_tales/texts/the_midnight_morjual.htm

Also, in the Thergerim, tasks are gender-associated and the females are not out of the workforce for long due to pregnancies.  I quote: "It is clear that (this method of reproduction) has contributed to the equality of their society, in that each dwarfmatron is only out of the workcycle for two relatively short periods in her life - and she and her mate have some control over exactly when those are, as well. She may then go on to care for her own as well as others' children (childcare, like cooking, is a communal duty in dwarf caverns) or return to her previous employment. "
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« Reply #26 on: 14 December 2008, 06:50:53 »

'Ow in the Netherworld d'you hexpect an Orc t'understand all them numbers an' fings?

Ahem. *removes Tharoc head and substitutes Human head*

Right. First off, let.......s'cuse me.

*Grips ears and twists sharply until head is facing the right way*

That's better. Right. First off, let me thank you for the basic ideas on working out Orc populations. It's given me a rough idea of how to approach it.

Now, there are a few things you should perhaps be aware of in your dealings with them. (These are in no particular order, save that of the order in which they occur to me!)

(1) As you quite rightly say, they breed quickly, but they also have a quite high mortality rate. There are a number of contributary factors to this - poor/no medical care, regular battling (for some tribes), poor diet.

(2) They have a relatively short life-span, rarely exceeding 40 - 50 years.

(3) Contrary to popular belief, they are not all pillaging murderers. Well, ok, I'll give you the Losh-oc. They're just bloodthirsty savages of the worst order!
The Rhom-oc are nomadic herdsmen who eat whatever they can find in the field.
The Ashz-oc are farmers, herdsmen and traders, so are pretty much self-sufficient.
The Osther-oc are a mix of warriors/mercenaries, and nomadic herders/traders. The warriors are usually fed by whoever employs them, and in lean times by taking what they need from whoever is nearest (usually the herders or the Kaaer'dar'shin half-orcs to the south)
The Gob-oc live mainly in caves (as do some of the members of the other tribes, to a greater or lesser extent! Confusing, eh?), and are very lazy (so no farmers/herders). They are very skilled politicians, and are often employed as advisors to various courts, where they are fed for free, obviously. (They are also very devious, and without exception use their positions to gain 'insider knowledge' which will worth much coin to someone somewhere)

Anyway, just a few thoughts which may, or may not, affect your sums.
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« Reply #27 on: 14 December 2008, 10:27:03 »

So...

The Mithral Coast is formed from Fief Tyrsan and the Capstan Coast, each respectively part of two distinct dutchies, but nevertheless forming a single economic and population region.  They produce all their own basic foods and export some of that food to the Dwarves.  The Dwarves of the Mithral mountains I will deal with the next message, but assuming they number less than 10,000 for now (let us suppose 4000 for the moment), and though they can be self sufficient for food if they want to be, they choose to import enough food for 2000 as a luxury (which they can afford), mostly fish, grain, vegetables, honey, jams as well as exotics from over the sea like olive oil and so on.  To this, they provide half their own food in underground  caverns and hunting in the foothills.  They probably export a few speciality basic foods like rare mushrooms, but for the purposes of our calculations here, their numbers are likely negligable.

So, we have the following Urban Centers that need to be fed:

Dwarves (2000 pop worth of food)

Marduran (9000? As the primary port on the coast, it is likely of some size
              though probably smaller than Ciaso with its 15,000.  See
              below for why... a little analysis of trade in the region)

Holt ("over 300" means over 300 * 5 = 1500, so a small town of, say,
       1500, many of whom live sort of in the immediate area)

Starmiran (a "three house" town like Holt, assume similar numbers:
              around 2000 pop. or 400 families)

Nepris (pop 200 meaning 200 * 5 =1000, fishing village)

Kolbruk (pop "200 to 400" meaning, 1000 to 2000, this is a small town
           with good farming lands and fishing - the main economic center
           for the southern region)


Sunf and the other towns are part of the inland region, foods from there would end up in Marcogg. 

Okay, so what is our "URBAN" population?

Dwarves 2000
Maduran 7000 (1000 are fed by local farms and 1000 by town fisheries)
Add       2000 for all small towns together
            ____
Total    11,000

Kolbruk, Starmiran, Nepris, Holt  All together have perhaps 2500 urbanized people (remember each has 670 farmers feeding the first 1000), with Nepris thus self sufficient for basic foods and the others nearly so (though remember that selfsufficiency doesnt mean they dont trade, just that they produce enough overall foods to feed their population, but Nepris fisherfolk probably get tired of fish once in a while...).  Kolbruk with its local farms provides most ofthe grain to the region, but it thus has a considerably larger farming population in numerous small clustered farming homesteads and tiny dorfs.

Since 10,000 persons of foods requires 20,000 persons to produce it, we can assume we have atleast another 20,000 people scattered around the towns and villages noted on the map.  This may seem like a lot, but it is very low, and the area could support far more... (probably another 60,000 or so more in fact, without difficulty - the whole region below the mountains is more than 30,000 ss, which even it were all Low Yield, would support  a total of 180,000 people!!  In the following calculations, I arrive at 42,000 pop total, meaning the areas is overall hardly over the 1/ss Very Low Yield threshold!  But it is kind of wild looking country...

Overall populations are estimated as follows:

Marduran and immediate area          9000 pop
Holt and surroundings                    9500 pop
Starmiran and surroundings           12,000 pop
border regions (Thersim)                6000 pop
North coast fisherman                    1000 pop
Nepris                                          1000 pop
South coast fishermen                    1100 pop
Kolbruk and local farming area          8400 pop
                                                _________
Total Mithral Coast Population           48,000 pop
(not counting Mithral Mnt Dwarf pop)

Detailed Analysis:

KOLBRUK
Assuming each "field" represented on the map is about 80ss of actual farmland with 20ss of unfarmed bits for a total of 100ss = 10 X 10 strals, each produces grains and foods enough for 80 x 60 = 4800 persons, but 2/3 of said persons work the fields themselves, so 3200 persons.  This means each such field with have around 740 families living and perhaps half that number of homesteads (around 250) which peper the land between the fields.  Since there are two such fields on the map, we can double this, and we find 500 homesteads around Kolbruk and 6400 people totally living in the area (not counting th 1000 to 2000 that live in the town itself).  Enough food is produced for everyone in the region plus 3200, or since sometimes Kolbruk is bristling with 1000 extra merchants and so on, it may only export 2200 people worth of grain to Maduran.  On average, we can easily see 2500 per year however.  Furthermore, although not itself on the sea, there is lots of coast near by that is surely peppered with small fishing communities, and all that fish will come through Kolbruk to be traded.  However, I will count fish later.

HOLT
There are around 4000ss or more of foothills around Holt, mostly for grazing.  Assuming even low yield, that is a max production in the area of already over 24,000 persons (though 16,000 would have to be doing the work of sheherding the sheep, etc.)  Since the town is 1500 or more, we could assume this, but let us assume it is at half capacity, so there are 8000 living in the region with their flocks and they are producing enough food for 4000 more than themselves (500 or so of which live in Holt). So a net export then of 3500 persons food to Maduran, mostly cheese, lamb and such goods as wool, much of which all eventually end up north in Carmala.

STARMIRAN
Similar both in land size and kind to Holt (it is another grazing/herding town), its location on the main trade route to both the Dwarves and Marcogg suggest it is bigger, probably having a population around 2000 (meaning 400 families).  Assuming slightly more local shepherds and farmers around the area (all of it more accessable), if we go with 10,000, enough food is produced for 15,000 or 5,000 surplus, and 1000 of that is used up in Starmiran itself, yielding a net total of 4000 persons worth of food and wool for export.  Assume other products like hemp and rope are also produced here for the ships of Maduran. Also, though Maduran has forests around it that are cut for timber for ships, the higher elevation of Starmiran means more coniferous growth, which is far better for straight masts, so there may also be some wood trade down to the city.  In any case, 4000 persons worth of basic goods and foods are produced here, at least a quarter and perhaps closer to a third of which is traded to the Dwarves.

NEPRIS and NORTH COAST and SOUTHCOAST fisheries
With a population of around 1000 (200 families) it is itself still a small village (see below for some thoughts on incorporating these numbers into the Nepris module), and overall neither contirbuting nor drawing from the Rural/Urban balance.  However, the entire coast line is surely peppered with fishing homesteads of 3 or so families with a fishing boat.  The coast line is close to 700 strals long, and even if we suppose that only half of that is suitable for people to live on next to the sea, and even if suppose only half of that is actually settled by such small fishing homesteads, we have over 150 strals after we subtract the Nepris and Maduran fishing centers.  Even if we keep to the rather low 1 homestead per stral (each with 3 families or 15 persons), we have another 2250 persons producing suplus food for a little more than 1000 persons, some of which will go to Kolbruk (the southern fishman), while those further north will drop their cargos off in Maduran and trade for other foods and goods.  It could sustain 10 times these numbers easily...

Finally there is a very large region north of Chalbern creek that is huge, even if we suppose the plentiful lands south of it are no longer viable due to some unfortunate history around the ruins (i.e., that area is now dessert where only orcs could live).  Still the norther expanse is twice the size or more of what lies around Starmiran, and it could be plowed for fields like Kolbruk and made home to a lovely town.  At the very least, we should probably expect a village at the river crossing at both the Chalbern creek and the Thersim crossing.  And though either or both might be small villages of 200 families (1000 persons), we should expect to find 30,000 or more farmers and shepherds in the area given its large size!  If we find less than 10,000 (supposing the land quality to be inferior) then there has to be a reason (like a serious orc menace to the south, but then this begs the question of why the dwarves and dutchies havent done something about it already!!)  So, I will assume it is populated by an extremely modest 6,000 who thus produce another 3000 persons worth of food surplus, most of which will be traded in Starmiran and then to the dwarves and Maduran.

Thus, we have surplus funneled through the small towns totalling:

Holt                      3500 persons foods surplus
Starmiran               4000 persons foods surplus
Kolbruk                  2500 persons foods surplus
Nepris &
Southern Coast        500 persons foods surplus
Norhtern Coast         500 persons foods surplus
Thersim borderlands 3000 persons foods surplus
                        ----------------
Total Surplus foods 14000 persons surplus foods of which...

feed 11,000 Urban folk, so there is 3000 more than than the region needs, so we can expect some of the finer goods (jams, honey, sausage, cheese) and some of the grain are likely exported overseas to cities, mostly probably Ciosa, which will need to import a lot of their food.

************************

A note on looking at the "small villages" as being larger... In particular, if Nepris has a real pop of 1000 (but 200 families), how many buildings would we expect to see?  First, not everyone lives in a seperate building, and many fishing and farmsteads will house 2 or 3 families (e.g., like the one around the garden in the modules as goes east), so right off we  have reduced and need to find 60 or so homes.  Second, half of these will be off the beaten track, up and down coast a bit from Nepris itself. Finally, whoever runs the tavern will also themselves live in tavern with their family and possibly a second support family. Ditto with any other shops.  So all in all, a few more children and people strolling around or wokring in the fields or out on fishing boats and the Nepris modules should work fine so far as the numbers go.  THis is just my suggestions here... 

Thoughts, reactions, ideas,... flames anyone? 


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« Reply #28 on: 14 December 2008, 16:54:05 »

Ringan, I did not read your calculations in detail, but I see you put this much work in it and I wanted to express my gratitude. I hope I'll have the time later to read it more thoroughly to be able to give a decent comment.

The only thought I had is that not every town /village described may fit to the one/two houses symbol. (definitely not Varcopas)
And what for effect have really great cities (a metropolis)  on the rest of the country. They must be fed from somebody, even if they have the gold to pay for their food. I think I read in FIEF some time ago that a country the size of Santharia (which is big!) can support at least three major towns (with inhabitants well over 100 000 or more)
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« Reply #29 on: 14 December 2008, 20:37:59 »

I. First, the Gnome sleeps....

I now noted that Marduran has a pop of 10,000... so corrected and revised populations are:

Region                          Total          Farmers/fishers      Urban

Marduran                      10,000              1,700            8,300
Holt                               1,500                 700               800     
Holt region                      6,000             6,000
Starmiron                        2,000                 700            1,300
Starmiron region              8,000              8,000
Northern Coast fishermen  1,000              1,000
Thersim/Chalbern area       3,000              2,900
                                 --------------            ----------           --------
Subtotal (Capstan Coast)  31,400            21,000           10,400
Food surplus/deficit            +100           +10,500          -10,400


Nepris                             1,000                 700                300
Southern coast fishermen  1,100               1,100
Kolbruk                           2,000                  700              1300
Kolbruk area                    6,500                6,500
                                 --------------              --------             --------
Subtotal Fief Tyrsan         10,600               9,000             1,600   
Food surplus/deficit          +2,900             +4,500            -1,600   

Grand total Mithral Coast   42,000              30,000           12,000
Total Food surplus/deficit  +3,000            +15,000          -12,000

Export to Dwarves             2000
Export to Ciosa                  1000




II. I will further look at dwarves and orcs in another message (thanks Tharoc and Bard Judith! All points well taken!)  However, we can assume Starmiran and Kolbruk have each around 100 Dwarves living amongst the humans, and perhaps a couple hundreds in Marduran.  If there are orc tribes, then they certainly would be living in the southern area around the Ruins of Karthmor and the Bayth Swamps, and the area could support several thousands (though if they got too numerous, I imagine the Dwarves and human settlements would go put an end to them...) Personally, I like to think there are about 100 gnomes in Holt - they lead the dying industry there  azn . Marduran probably has a smattering of most of the races represented, just a few hundreds total all counted. A few hundred hobbits may live around Svanfrill Hill, especially if there turns out to be a graven's keep there.

III. an alternative way to count the village populations given is to assume these numbers are ONLY the inner nonagricultural core, and doubling the numbers for children.  So a village of 300 means:

300 adults in villlage (at least 12 years old) with craft shops and the
       rest, also a local lord (see below for a typical breakdown).
200 children (under 12 years old) of the above adults.
600 farmers (and/or fishermen) and 400 more children in surrounding area (roughly extending 2 to 4 strals in each direction).  The numbers work at pretty much the same per the previous post.

IV. a village with 300 adults, like Holt (by example), means about 100 homes (most will be married couples and assume teens live with parents), not counting the farming (and fishing elsewhere) homesteads surrounding the village.  In a wild region like the Mithral Coast, with pirates, bandits, orcs, and God knows what else, the villages probably are centered around a keep with a lord with a knight captain, 2 squires, a seargent at arms and 15 permanent menatarms, all with horse and armor.  There is surely a blacksmith who is also a resident armorer, tanners (assuming local graying), a cobbler and assorted other leather workerss, a spinner, a tailor and several dyers (unique to Holt, not mormal for a village - all are gnomes  :P  ), a tinker (also a gnome), masons, a barreller, a boyer, carpenters, potters, rope makers and candle makers, a miller, a baker, at least one tavern keeper (probably 3) and one a brewer, a horse keeper, a money lender (gnome?) who doubles with a general shop (not realistic to medieval, but appropriate to fantasy), etc..  Probably 30 craftsmen with shops in all and 60 families employed by the first but also working as wood cutters, candle makers and of course dyers ingredients gatherers, and so on.

V. FIEF TYRSAN
Given that the southern region is a "Fief" we may assume there is a  Graven (probably Moundgraven originally, but perhaps now a landgraven or even a markgraven) of the region (who perhaps choose to live in Marcogg with blue bloods playing Tarot in salons, telling bad jokes and being semi-witty)  The primary town is Kolbruk which has an extensive manor and tower keep, so the likely center of his/her lands.  But it is owned by the Altnaus trading family... who once almost acquired the dutchy of Marcogg itself it seems!  Since there is not much happening elsewhere in the fief, but is nevertheless part of the dutchy of Marcogg, it must be that either the local graven has been paid off by the Altnaus family to let them have free reign or is an Altnaus.  So, this is my guess - and in fact, it is probably the doings of the Altnaus family that the fief is in Marcogg and not part of the Capstan Coast, perhaps for tax reasons....?  So my thinking is that a deal was struck with the Dutchy of Marcogg at some point, perhaps recently in the past two hundred years, that the area would be given to them, either indirectly through a chosen family who would leave administration to the Altnaus family, and in return would receive a yearly endowment of funds to live luxuriously in Marcogg, or to the Altnaus directly.  An importrant advantage in either case is to stop other trading houses from muscling in as they have in the past, because now if they try, they are assaulting one of the dutchy's estates, which would have very severe repercussions to their operations in Marcogg...  The fiefdom's keep confirms the  land as part of the dutchy and the Althaus's probably paid for it, even if they do not "own" it (or the gravendom...)  However, if the land is not Althaus's formally, perhaps not every generation of graven is satisfied to sit idly by and let the Althaus's do the work and get the big profits...

In any case, there should be a Graven's keep somewhere in the area where he or she maintains at least a nominal presence.  I would suggest the Hills of Sanfrill, overlooking where the road splits south and west. Since most of the revinue of the area is from trading and the area around Kolbruk, there is unlikely to be an extensive need for more.  The taxes on the fisherman would not be enough to make it worth it.  Since the Althaus family has a stranglehold on all the trade in the fief, there is no need for taxes - their earnings are reflected in their profits and rents in Kolbruk.   

With a population of just over 10,000 or so, now that the farming communities around Kolbruk have expanded extensively, we should expect the graven maintains a retinue of a knight captain, knight errant leutenant, each with squires (3), 2 seargents at arms, and 12 men at arms for a total of 20. half would live in the keep and half would follow the graven as their entourage, perhaps residing in Marcogg in a nicer townhouse there. 

If this seems a nice idea to others, I will write up some NPCs for this and background story fitting into the other stories.  Important though is whether the graven is Althaus or not.

I would guess that the population of Kolbruk can only grow to become a proper town.  I would recommend doubling the population at least, perhaps raising it to a full fledged small town of 2500 or so.


VI. CAPSTAN COAST
 the northern region has a sizable population of 31,400.  This is a very large and rich Graven...  Close to a Marquis in their own right!  Perhaps even carries this additional title:  Marquis of Marduran...  In addition, both Holt and Starmiran are likely baronies, each with a respective keep in the area.

VII. Dwarves of the Mountains
The dwarves could number greater than 20,000 based on the size of the mountain range (more than 20,000ss.) and 1/ss. limit.  Normally, I would guess that they do not tend to grow this large, but this is an old dwarven kingdom!  And with one major, one minor newer and one small ambassadorial settlement, this is really a kind of old Moria dwarven paradise.  So, I am going to suggest two things:

1. The population is high for dwarves, around 9500 in fact.  7000 live in the main hidden city, 2000 in the new gold mines and 500 in the ambassadorial settlement.  PLEASE would the dwarven sages pipe in here with strongly given opinions  shocked

2. The area is a kind of "Graven" in its own rights.  Does this sound right?  IF they allow themselves to be regarded as part of the dutchy of Marcogg, then they must have active representation in Marcogg, and they must really like the Duke!  For surely, an army of 100,000 men could not siege and capture their kingdom....  I would think an army of 100,000 goblins lead by a chosen one would be needed, and nothing less would suffice to conquer this dwarven gem. The only way to get them to become part of the dutchy is with such delicious trade relations, they just cannot resist  :)

Thoughts?

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