* 
Welcome Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?


*
gfxgfx Home Forum Help Search Login Register   gfxgfx
gfx gfx
gfx
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Print
Author Topic: Population  (Read 9221 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Miraran Tehuriden
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 61
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 3.999


Creator Of .. well, not much, recently


View Profile Homepage
« Reply #45 on: 15 December 2008, 04:20:07 »

Which is all good, since dwarflings dont die, usually.

Also, every race there has a surivival rate Alysse.. care to explain what that could be? :P
Logged

Avrah Kehabhra

"The whole POINT of Nybelmar is that no one has any idea whats going on, overly long entries keep it that way." - Decipher Ziron
Alysse the Likely
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 69
Offline Offline

Gender: Female
Posts: 2.089



View Profile
« Reply #46 on: 15 December 2008, 08:04:09 »

The survival rate refers to the number of infants that usually survive to adulthood.  In medieval times, you could usually count on having one or more of your children dying as babies. ( Even in recent times--the great grandmother of a relative of mine had 14 babies, only 5 of which made it past age two.  She couldn't nurse and formula wasn't available.).  For instance, they couldn't do C-sections--so babies that needed them wouldn't survive; they didn't have high quality medical care; they had at best a limited understanding of, or practice of, basic hygiene; etc.  So, not all babies would live, especially those in rough and primitive conditions (orcs, for example).  Nobles and races with access to magic might have better rates than average, but they also might have less children.

Hope that clears it up,


Alysse
Logged

Alysse the Likely
Miraran Tehuriden
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 61
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 3.999


Creator Of .. well, not much, recently


View Profile Homepage
« Reply #47 on: 15 December 2008, 08:26:12 »

I was actually trying to point out the consistent spelling error in surivival ;) count the i's :P
Logged

Avrah Kehabhra

"The whole POINT of Nybelmar is that no one has any idea whats going on, overly long entries keep it that way." - Decipher Ziron
Bard Judith
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 365
Offline Offline

Gender: Female
Posts: 7.653


Dwarvenmistress


View Profile Homepage
« Reply #48 on: 15 December 2008, 08:43:36 »

Mira, stop getting greedy!   The man's working on SARVONIA, and if you throw in Nybelmarnian data, we'll be all over the map!

Er.

No pun intended, really.

But yes, good Master Ringan, your assumptions about Sarvonian dwarves are pretty much right on.  They have a few isolated and inaccessible (reached by tunnels) mountain-side 'gardens' - not huge farms, but sheltered terraces and bowls, carved out in protected areas.   Some clans have more aboveground areas than others, though most are pretty secretive.   Of course, the Ximaxian dwarves are quite different, intermingling with the other races and being less claustrophilic...but you can safely assume that the Thergerim as a whole are an essential part of the Santharian economy, bound up with various trade relationships and treaties for many hundreds of years.
Logged

"Give me a land of boughs in leaf /  a land of trees that stand; / where trees are fallen there is grief; /  I love no leafless land."   --A.E. Housman
 
Ringan
Newbie
*

Gained Aura: 5
Offline Offline

Posts: 28


View Profile
« Reply #49 on: 15 December 2008, 22:49:47 »

Hi Artimidor,

All my assumptions were thankfully noted in pencil...  :D

I figured I would make lots of wrong assumptions here, but thought to start working it out to figure where it worked and where it didn't.  Thanks for pointing these things out.

So, a couple of questions and then I will outline the basic problem.

If huts are villages and houses are towns, what exactly is the difference?  For example, Kolbruk is houses, but only has a population of 200 to 400 varying by seasons.  Setting a policy, like one house means 600 pop and one hut means 1-200 pop would be helpful (just an idea)

If Nepris really is 200 persons, does that mean about 40 men, 40 women and 120 children?  Does that mean to count ONLY those who live within eyeshot of the main road?  In otherwords, if you walk a stral down the road and see a cottage where a farmer and her family live, are they already included in that population?

Now, a really big question is whether every city that exists is noted on the map.  In other words, are there any cities larger than 10,000 not currently identified and named on the map?  My assumption is no...

What about towns between 1000 and 5000 - can we assume they are all marked on the map?  I wanted to assume that yes, any town of this size has been included on the map (hence why I was thinking some of the villages might turn out to be towns...)

What about villages between 100 and 1000 - can we assume they are NOT all marked on the map?  I assumed not, since this would tend to fill the map and take away some of its utility and beauty.

These are some of the basic questions that need to be addressed.  And by way, perhaps we can finalize a map using all the best cartographic principles  :)

Other assumptions include finding the right number to represent the rural/urban split.  I originally used optimistic but historically accurate numbers, that 80% to 90% of the overall population lived and worked farms.  Bard Judy piped in some good points, so I stretched it down to 67% so that for every 2 persons working the field, you would have 1 person living in a town or city hammering away on an anvil or making copious notes in a spell book. 

Especially in a land as HUGE as Santharia (to say nothing of the whole continent, never mind the world!) it probably is a good idea to set down some policies that creators and dreamers can use to ensure their conceptions all end up consistent.  One of the most important numbers is this RURAL/URBAN split above.

Another super important number is the support the land can offer, which is where the High Yield, Middle Yield, Low Yield, Very Low Yield, and No Yield numbers come from, that High Yield produce enough for 60 pop/ square stral, then 30/ss, then 6/ss, then 1/ss, then 0.1/ss.  These are pretty accurate so far as history goes, and there didn't seem cause to increase or decrease them, but what do you think?  What IS important, however, is to decide on some system like this so that when someone starts developing a region, they have some guidelines to keep numbers managable.

Finally, as Bard J. pointed out, a big city can import a lot of its food, but it has to import that food from SOMEWHERE... so ultimately, all of these numbers need to be roughly consistent.

I did the Mithral coast analysis hoping to find a way to interpret the map and infos already provided to show the region as a NET basic goods and food Producer, because someone has to make the food for Ciaso and other big cities.  The only way I could see to work this was to assume there were a few towns in the area that would be funnelling produce upto to the Marduran with its 10,000 population.

Something like the following is needed:

For every inhabited region that is Fief to Dutchy sized (say 10,000 to 100,000 square strals or so), begin by deciding whether it is condusive to agriculture or not. If it is, assume most of it is automatically semi-wilderness that automatically supports 1 pop/ss.  If it is not, assume most of iti s wilderness that automatically supports 0.1 pop/ss.  Or some mix between these two (like 50/50). 

To this, some % of the land has been actively cultivated to become production land that supports 6, 30 or 60 pop/ss.  This % is going to be based on history more than anything else.  If the area is the center of an ancient kingdom, assume this is maximized.  What are the maximums?  Again, these should be set...  But if the land was rich, it could be 20%,40%, 40%.  If it wasn't, perhaps 0%, 5%, 20% with remainder remaining semiwilderness.  A simple table could set this out.

If an area has a lot cities and towns, that is a good sign that is rich...

Anyhow, the key then is to see that the total population supported will allow a certain amount of Urban population.  And the % urban (the 33% I came to after discussion being a sort of high medieval/rennaissance on magical steroids) then needs to be distributed.  But this number won't only be subsumed in the big city, but at least half of it will the population of the midsized towns... and these are in short supply in most parts of the kingdom (at least from looking at the map).  I suppose it is always more fun to mark down and work on super cities than it is on the rather boring small towns without anything too special to be said about them  :)

I applied the above sort of logic and thinking to the Mithral Coast as a case study.  I figured the land itself was not especially hospitable to agriculture, but of course it has fisheries.  Nevertheless, with some development (notably around Kolbruk), it would find a way to become a net producer.  But with Marduran at 10,000, we would expect about five towns in the region with avg. populations of 2000 or so... 

Again, we can change this fundamental sort of number, that half of the Urban population live in towns and the other half live in cities, but it does make the life on the local farmers and merchants very difficult... Trucking your harvests several hundred stral is impossible economically speaking, that is why there are usually the midsized towns to sell your goods in and trade (from which larger operations may then move foods to yet larger cities...)

Looking at the Mithral Coast this way, there seem to be two primary food depot towns that feed Marduran, the one Starmiran, the other Kolbruk (which is quite far, but using ships makes this less problematic).  Given the abundance of fisheries, I would have guessed Nepris would be larger, but fishermen can also live in the city itself and sail out on fishing expeditions, so this is not big thing.  Holt is also not just a farming village but an important center for dye production - this in itself suggests it would become a town.

Anyhow, trying to figure out where the missing several thousand towns people live was difficult... Even if the Towns to Cities population ratio was less than 1 to 1, but say even 1 to 3 (very unhistorical), there would still need to be a couple of towns with almost 2000 pop each...

BTW - as an historical example, medieval England 13th century had between 3 and 5 millions population by the end of the century, and then it counted something like 30 cities of several thousands to several tens of thousands of people.  It also had around 500 larger market villages and small towns that ranged in size from 500 to 2500 or so.  With an average city size of 8,000, then 240,000 lived in proper cities (the biggest of course being London with between 30 and 80,000), while 500 x avg towns of 1500 = 750,000 pop.  Meaning an historically accurate ratio finds town to city population around 1 to 3 (instead of 1 to 1 or the above proposed 3 to 1 !).

Okay, I have gone on...  What do you think?  The choices seem either to introduce a lot more towns and large villages (as well as a lot more assumed population living in the countryside unmarked on the maps) or assume there are magicians who can create food from thin air in the cities...

BTW -  in trying to work these things out in Santharia, I am always trying to see how to make things work but changing as little as possible.  I am not sure how to proceed on this one though... 


I note in consistent population estimates in some cases, such as Ciaso - a population of 15,000 or 65,000? Damn it is going to be hard to find enough potatoes for those 65,000....   rolleyes



...You're also taking some things for granted in the current state on the site, which weren't meant the way you interpret them. So one after the other!

For example you assume that 200 inhabitants in Nepris are meant to actually be 200*5, while the amount of town inhabitants was meant to be just as it is on the site. 200 inhabitants in Nepris were actually meant to be 200 inhabitants. If the number is inaccurate according to your calculations, then it has to be corrected or it needs to be at least reconsidered, but what's on the site is meant to be the actual number of inhabitants.

I also noticed that you conclude that Starmiran (a "three house" town) is pretty much like Holt, though this is something that was intended differently on the map I drew. Just three houses doesn't necessarily mean that it's a town, because I use two different symbols to represent settlements: Huts and houses. Houses are meant to represent towns, huts villages. A three hut settlement therefore was intended to be a larger village, while a three house settlement was intended to stand for a larger town. So big difference here.

I have to read it all in detail yet, but I just wanted to correct these assumptions first.
Logged
Tharoc Wargrider
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 52
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 1.643


Peripatetic plunderer of crunchy comestibles


View Profile
« Reply #50 on: 16 December 2008, 00:58:21 »

Hi, Ringan. I think I may be about to throw a spanner in the works.

There is a town in central Caaehl’heroth, northern Sarvonia, called Hell'wrung. I'm slowly creating an entry to go with it, and I am hoping to be allowed to make it an Orcen garrison containing a few thousand troops (in and around the actual walls of the settlement).
I also intend to link it with 3 more large settlements in the same area, each one holding large amounts of troops and the various tradesmen etc that go with an army.
One, in particular, on the west coast will become an important trading port, with thousands of inhabitants spread over quite a large area.

How does this affect your reckoning?
Logged

Use the force, Luke.

And if that doesn't work, try switching it off and back on again.
Nsikigan Ho´Tonanese Yourth
Aspiring Member
**

Gained Aura: 19
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 1.799



View Profile
« Reply #51 on: 16 December 2008, 05:09:27 »

I am currently taking a college-level course on Human Geography, including urban-rural spread, diffusion, etc.
Ring, if you're interested in shaping out some of your theory, we may be able to do so on IRC or AIM.
Logged

Nsikigan Yourth, Eyelian extraordinare.

Some men aren't looking for anything logical like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn. - The Dark Knight

Wisdom begins in wonder. ~ Socrates

A government in which the majority rule in all cases cannot be based on justice, even as far as men understand it- HD Thoreau
Artimidor Federkiel
Administrator
*****

Gained Aura: 538
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 23.098



View Profile Homepage
« Reply #52 on: 16 December 2008, 05:14:45 »

To answer some questions, Ringan:

If huts are villages and houses are towns, what exactly is the difference?

Well, there are of course inconsequences between entries on the site and what I drew on the map. Mostly I tried to show approximately on the map what was mentioned in an entry, but sometimes there were adjustments I made while drawing, which just looked better or seemed to make sense for the one or the other reason. If we look at Manthria now in detail we should try to make it more consistent and either decide to adjust the numbers mentioned in the entry or change the number of houses of the Manthrian map.

In case of Kolbruk I guess it seemed reasonable to make it larger than 200-400 persons, because after all it's pretty much a trading center, so it actually has the size of a small town on the map.

This surely isn't the only inconsequence you'll find - the problem is that we should tend severely towards the map version in the final decision, so that we can keep the houses wherever possible. Because as you might have seen in various Manthrian entries I've already made zoomable Flash maps. If we'd have to change the map version, I'd have to change every map state of every Flash map we have on site.  shocked

if you walk a stral down the road and see a cottage where a farmer and her family live, are they already included in that population?

The numbers are of course only approximations. Farmers, hermits etc. living nearby might not be included, I guess the numbers basically represent the core of a settlement. I guess in medieval times couting people wasn't that easy.

Now, a really big question is whether every city that exists is noted on the map.

The Manthrian map I guess is pretty complete. There shouldn't be larger settlements that are not shown on the map. Basically I also tried to cover also all the smaller ones. Simply because if we write entries we describe everything very detailed and we should know if there's another smaller village nearby or not etc. So it was meant to be the real thing. Should you think that here and there another village should be added, it's not impossible, though. Just remember, that this detailed map was drawn in order to nail it down - see the difficulties with changing existing maps I mentioned above.

Now if you look at the Santharian map in comparison to the Manthrian map, you will see that it is only extremely rough. There might indeed be larger settlements that are not shown at all at the moment. But deciding on how many we need where approximately could be part of this detailed analysis.

We have a blown up complete Santharian map somewhere, which is exactly in the scale of the Manthrian map. It's just the Santharian map enlarged until that size, so that I have a reference if I work on another part of the Santharian map, e.g. another province. If you want this would be something you could tackle at some point - taking the next province, think about where to place settlements, their size, how the surroundings should look like etc. If the work on how a part should look like is done in advance and most is roughly marked on the map sketch, then it will be much easier to realize the detailed map. :)

So far some answers to the questions you posed, Ringan. Now read to read more of your post.
Logged



"Between the mind that plans and the hands that build there must be a mediator, and this must be the heart." -- Maria (Metropolis)
Nsikigan Ho´Tonanese Yourth
Aspiring Member
**

Gained Aura: 19
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 1.799



View Profile
« Reply #53 on: 16 December 2008, 05:25:54 »

Actually Art, could I get my hands on the massive map?
Logged

Nsikigan Yourth, Eyelian extraordinare.

Some men aren't looking for anything logical like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn. - The Dark Knight

Wisdom begins in wonder. ~ Socrates

A government in which the majority rule in all cases cannot be based on justice, even as far as men understand it- HD Thoreau
Artimidor Federkiel
Administrator
*****

Gained Aura: 538
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 23.098



View Profile Homepage
« Reply #54 on: 16 December 2008, 05:35:53 »

Monstersize map can be downloaded here.
Logged



"Between the mind that plans and the hands that build there must be a mediator, and this must be the heart." -- Maria (Metropolis)
Nsikigan Ho´Tonanese Yourth
Aspiring Member
**

Gained Aura: 19
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 1.799



View Profile
« Reply #55 on: 16 December 2008, 05:41:21 »

Thank you!
Logged

Nsikigan Yourth, Eyelian extraordinare.

Some men aren't looking for anything logical like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn. - The Dark Knight

Wisdom begins in wonder. ~ Socrates

A government in which the majority rule in all cases cannot be based on justice, even as far as men understand it- HD Thoreau
Artimidor Federkiel
Administrator
*****

Gained Aura: 538
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 23.098



View Profile Homepage
« Reply #56 on: 16 December 2008, 06:51:06 »

Well, and on the question: How much does a house and a hut represent? That's a bit difficult of course, because it is basically a schematic representaion. Especially at towns this might not be entirely accurate. I use however a larger house as well here and there to show that there are more people living there (e.g. in Marduran).

As a rough approximation one could say perhaps that a hut might be 300 people, a long house maybe 600, a small house maybe 300 as well. A large house could then mean that it's a major city with a few thousand inhabitants.
Logged



"Between the mind that plans and the hands that build there must be a mediator, and this must be the heart." -- Maria (Metropolis)
Coren FrozenZephyr
Santh. Member
***

Gained Aura: 157
Offline Offline

Gender: Male
Posts: 3.359



View Profile
« Reply #57 on: 16 December 2008, 19:38:04 »

Ringan you're a godsend! I've finally worked my way through most of this thread (only the last 2/30 pages left I think). I do have a few queries; I will try to post them later tonight.

I guess it is a bit sad but I did rather amuse myself going through your calculations. But then again, in two years' time I will make a living drafting securities documents - so that a few years down the line more banks can go bust after purchasing all sorts of exotic products, generating more inso - erhm - "restructuring" work for us... We, lawyers, may, of course, eventually run out of clients - but who is thinking that far ahead?

Pedant-to-pedant: Good work.


EDIT: Argh, I noticed a couple of linguistic mistakes in the post but, without a functioning mouse, I cannot be bothered to rewrite the message. My perfectionism is eroding...
Logged

"Everything should be as simple as possible and not simpler." Albert Einstein

"Is he allowed to do that?"
"I think that comes under the rule of Quia Ego Sic Dico."
"Yes, what does that mean?"
"'Because I say so', I think."
"That doesn't sound like much of a rule!"
"Actually, it's the only one he needs." (Making Money by Terry Pratchett)
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Print
Jump to:  

Recent
[27 March 2019, 00:01:57]

[21 June 2018, 14:28:00]

[31 May 2017, 06:35:55]

[06 May 2017, 05:27:04]

[03 April 2017, 01:15:03]

[26 March 2017, 12:48:25]

[15 March 2017, 02:23:07]

[15 March 2017, 02:20:28]

[15 March 2017, 02:17:52]

[14 March 2017, 20:23:43]

[06 February 2017, 04:53:35]

[31 January 2017, 08:45:52]

[15 December 2016, 15:50:49]

[26 November 2016, 23:16:38]

[27 October 2016, 07:42:01]

[27 September 2016, 18:51:05]

[11 September 2016, 23:17:33]

[11 September 2016, 23:15:27]

[11 September 2016, 22:58:56]

[03 September 2016, 22:22:23]
Members
Total Members: 1081
Latest: lolanixon
Stats
Total Posts: 144683
Total Topics: 11053
Online Today: 105
Online Ever: 226
(06 November 2012, 05:38:23)
Users Online
Users: 0
Guests: 87
Total: 87

Last 10 Shouts:
22 February 2019, 06:47:10
A delightful 2019 shout-out to you all ^^
21 November 2018, 23:39:14
Seems none of us can stay away ..
09 March 2018, 23:37:46
Dream goes on as long as there are dreamers my friend.
17 January 2018, 01:23:22
Oh, how I wish we could reawaken the Dream :)
16 January 2018, 11:55:48
Hello everyone!
14 September 2017, 09:40:04
Hello all! It's been a minute since I poked my nose in here. Can't remember if I ever did anything useful.
09 May 2017, 14:17:18
Ah, too bad that internet is so restricted in China, Ferra. Can't be much fun surfing the web that way if Big Brother's watching you... Hope you enjoy your stay nevertheless!
03 May 2017, 17:41:19
Hi, dear Arti and other developers!

This year I am in China and cannot use any Google services including YouTube. For this reason I stopped uploading new Nepris videos. I can also not read any comments there.

It just crossed my mind that this information might be useful to you.

Cheers

F
26 March 2017, 12:48:56
Hello to anyone that might read this. :)
22 December 2016, 02:38:16
Merry Christmas everyone!
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2005, Simple Machines
TinyPortal v0.9.8 © Bloc
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Theme based on Cerberus with Risen adjustments by Bloc and Krelia
Modified By Artimidor for The Santharian Dream
gfx
gfxgfx gfxgfx